Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
One other detection within 20 km in the last 24 hours, <1 km from here.
This alert is in force until 29 September 2026, 19:45 UTC.
No stronger detection stands among the 6 recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 July 2026 — one other scored the same. The last comparable one was on 16 September 2026. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flood Warning issued September 29 at 9:42AM MST until September 29 at 12:45PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ
Urban PEI: 4,317,166 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 17 July 2026
- September 29, 2026 · score 46 · 0.0 km
- August 31, 2026 · 12.2 km
- August 10, 2026 · 16.4 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 33.6439, -112.2451 |
| Nearest City | Sun City (5 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 4.3M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-29T16:42:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.b37977c17803eb090ee20d037c243c0e8f9468f0.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-29T16:42:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-29T16:31:32.052Z. Material modification: 2026-09-29T16:47:47.848Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
1 retained revision changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b37977c17803eb090ee20d037c243c0e8f9468f0.001.1 |
| Urgency | Expected |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Maricopa, AZ |
| Headline | Flood Warning issued September 29 at 9:42AM MST until September 29 at 12:45PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-29T12:45:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Phoenix AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 3 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b37977c17803eb090ee20d037c243c0e8f9468f0.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c239a48318f9f5dc7eb3af47ecd50dd85bb30abd.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9900e614e9b7f20532908c772b88cc682355cda4.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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